Why the iPhone will be a smash hit

Okay, I don't post here anymore, but I had to go ahead and run this one. It was poorly written late at night and not edited, but I think it gets the point across. Share and enjoy.

What's interesting about the impending release of the iPhone is that it is tracking in several different ways. An interesting comment on seekingalpha.com mentioned that the iPhone won't do so well because the mobile phone market is split into two markets: the "cheap" phone market for individual users and the "smart" market for enterprise users.

What this user fails to recognize is the convergence in the two areas lead in the past few years by Blackberry Pearl and Sidekick. The truth is, individual users in the US are beginning to expect more than basic telephony from their cellphones - they want it to be a media and entertainment device as well. This is where the iPhone emerges as a key player.

Like most analysts are expecting, it will certainly be a top-selling device for businesses looking to ditch unsightly, harder to use smart phones currently populating the enterprise arena. The iPhone will replace the e-mail and voice services currently offered by Treo and Blackberry models and add full web functionality (thanks to OS X's Safari) not currently offered by competitors. It will also add visual voicemail - an underrated feature that will increase productivity by allowing workers to screen voicemail and skip right to the most important ones. Moreover, rumors that the iPhone will utilize Leopard's new iCal-server to attract enterprise users are now surfacing. All of this will lead to unprecedented mobile productivity at the same cost as existing solutions.

But what analysts are failing to recognize is the iPhone relevance as a device for students. Many current cellphone users in the younger age demographics already pay $300 for an iPod, $149 for a PSP or Nintendo DS and $150-200 for a Sidekick or similar cellphone device. Especially as Apple opens up the built-in OS X architecture to software developers to make gaming an option on the device, parents will be willing to pay the iPhone's hefty price to combine all of these features. By only releasing iPhones with 8gb in maximum storage capacity, many users will still decide that their "digital life" also requires an iPod with more room for increasingly data-heavy media files, ensuring that Apple's dominance in the mobile player market will continue.

Experts are also not picking up on two more iPhone trends. First, the iPhone is tracking nicely as the next phone purchase for many average phone subscribers looking to switch companies or upgrade their plans. It's no secret that Americans are dissatisfied with almost all available wireless services. Therefore the allure of the iPhone is making borderline users who are thinking about switching carriers (and having to buy new phones anyways) more likely to do so pending the iPhone release. This not only means a huge jump in marketshare for Cingular, it means Apple is set to open a brand new market for itself - the market for dissatisfied customers of other carriers who haven't previously seen enough of a difference in other wireless providers to switch. Therefore the exclusivity contract with Cingular could actually help, not hinder Apple.

Finally, the iPhone will reverse the trend the iPod started when Apple opened them up to Windows users. It's well known that iPod sales have increased sales of Macintosh, Apple's computer line, because of customer satisfaction with the iPod. Certainly, the iPhone will have this effect among new users who like the interface. However, the iPhone is also looking like a must-have product for current Mac users who are frustrated with their current mobile phones and want the "Mac experience" they enjoy at home in their mobile lives. This is especially true of the increasing number of recent converts who have made the "switch" from Windows to Mac. Coming from a frustrating Windows environment, these users see the iPhone as another way to decrease the technology stress in their lives that has been taken care of at home by the same company, Apple Inc.

All of this makes the iPhone nothing short of a sure lock to sell 10 million units or more in its first year, on target with Apple's initial goals.

The Future of the Commuter Economy

As we move far beyond the 20th century, our world will be faced with daunting questions: How will we save our environment? Can we end oil dependancy? Can we stop using fossil fuels altogether?

Despite the incredible artistic value of the above model, these are my predictions for the future of the commuter economy, the first leap to environmental solvency, in three easy steps.


1
President Bush's hydrogen fuel-cell miracle has been touted as the savior of the global environment and the US economy, but the promise seems to always be ten years away, year after year. Hydrogen cars may well be just a pipe dream, and they still don't do much to decrease our emissions or energy independance, since processing hydrogen gas requires fossil fuels. Using hydrogen would be ideal, because it would mean the current commuter economy would stay in tact, but in case we never see the technology, electric "Smart Cars" manufactured by Daimler-Chrysler may be the way to go.

The so-called "Smart Cars" have taken hold in Europe recently, due to their cheap price (A two-seater goes for about $8,000), stylish looks, compact design for better parking, and of course the fact that you can plug them into the wall overnight and then drive them for 2 days with no trips to a gas station. To make this work, cities would have to require that only smart-cars be used on their roads, a step that's not too far off, with some European cities banning traffic from the city-center altogether. If everyone owned Smart Cars instead of gas cars, safety wouldn't be an issue, and we would see drastic decreases in oil consumption, though it wouldn't be full independance because oil is still used to generate electricity, just a whole lot less than running a traditional gasoline car. These cars are much better than the traditional vision of an all-purpose electric car with its sustainability problems, because the smart car is meant only for city driving. The one problem is that these smart cars have a maximum speed of about 45mph, and using them at high-speeds for long periods of time uses more battery, which means if we make the switch, we're going to need a new system for mass-transit across and between cities. This leads us to number 2.


2
Amtrak's badly-engeneered line of high-speed electric trains dubbed "Acela" were recently de-comissioned temporarily, and can hardly be considered a success. But, they should be considered a glimpse into the future. In this example, these electric high-speeders would be used to cary people in their smart cars (See above) in place of highways, which cannot be used by the lower-speed smarts. Even though people wouldn't have full control of where they get off and on, these commuter trains could average 70-80 mph, much faster than current highway travel. And, with no traffic to worry about, these trains would probably make up for having to drive an extra few miles from where a normal exit would be. The one problem is how to get smart cars to load onto a train like people onto a subway, with stops less than five minutes, but that's a minor hurdle.


3
After 9-11, when air travel was suspended for five days following the attacks, scientists finally had time to study what effect planes have on the atmosphere, and the results were staggering. Airplane vapor trail emissions are wreaking havoc on the atmosphere, it turns out, because the US has so many domestic flights per day, which dump emissions directly into the atmosphere, as opposed to emissions losing much of their potency on the way up from the streets.

Because the airline industry is failing anyways, I propose we cut off domestic travel altogether, and replace it with high-speed electric trains like the ones that line Europe's corridors. Amtrak is already experimenting with a train that goes from Boston to New York in less than 3 hours, but to really pull this off, the government must step in and say no to domestic flight. In fact, it may not be such a bad idea, as electric trains are often faster than air travel once you account for time spent in the car, waiting in the airport, taxiing, etc. Plus, the trains offer much more in terms of convenience, because they can stop for less time than a two-part air trip, at more places, while still maintaining a high average speed.

International flights, of course, would still be allowed, but the damage from those would be slight compared to what we have now.


If we follow the steps I've outlined today in the next 20 years, I believe we will be able to reverse some of the damage we've done to our country. With oil prices undermining the US and world economy, we've got to find another way, and to do that, we may have to overhaul the current system, a change that lawmakers are always going to be hesitant to make. It will cost trillions of dollars to overhaul the system, but it could end up saving Americans and the world a whole lot more.

I look forward to your comments on this article.

The New Pope Looks Like Emperor Palpatine

All joking aside, this Pope promises to be one of the most conservative leaders of the Vatican in recent years. Known as "The Enforcer", Pope Benedict XVI was the one behind the communion ban on those who supported gay rights, and is one of the most conservative Vatican theologans. What will his paupacy mean for the rest of the world?


The AIDS Crisis...Again

The Vatican's official stance on condoms has long been that they violate the command to not have sex for pleasure, as it seems that if anyone doesn't want to have babies, but is still having sex, they're likely doing it for some form of enjoyment. Unfortunately, with recent reports of another AIDS crisis working its way through India, it seems as if the Vatican's abstinence policy hasn't been paying off, as more people are obviously still having sex, and perhaps due to the influence of the Vatican, without condoms. Further, the "do-as-I-say-not-as-I-do" message the Church has been sending recently due to numerous reports of fatherly abuse cases, can't help the case.

So will Pope Benedict finally change an old-world policy to keep up with increasingly dangerous times? Probably not. Pope Benedict is one of the most conservative members of the Vatican, and will follow the hard-line stance, leaving many third-world Catholics in the dust.


Israel

Pope John-Paul II was the first Pope to accept Israel not only as a worthy nation, but as a friend. He was also the first Pope to address the President of Israel by his rightful title, and visit the wailing wall. It's likely that Pope Benedict will continue this tradition, simply because John-Paul's actions earned a lot of popularity among the Jewish population, and because there is no official Church stance on it that Benedict feels obligated to follow. Especially with a road to peace being outlined with the first amounts of success in decades, Benedict will likely not upset a delicate balance in the Middle East.


Moral Values in the US and Beyond

It's obvious that Pope Benedict will follow most of the old rules about moral values: Abortion, sin. Homosexuality, sin. Stem cell research, double-sin (playing god AND killing an innocent). The only question that remains is how honestly Benedict will be able to voice his opinions. In an ever liberalizing world, Benedict is more and more on the outside. With socialisation, acceptance, and generally liberal trends continuing in Europe, he may well have to bite his tongue when it comes to these touchy issues. To be sure, American Catholics will cling to his every word, but others may feel his credibility lessened if he harps too much on issues that in Europe, are considered solved, or at least ones where the generally accepted stance is the liberal one, not the conservative line that Benedict follows.

Overall, Pope Benedict XVI will probably bring no change to the Vatican, and will likely not make any big moves. He is tied to a conservative doctrine that he's followed for to long to change. In choosing Benedict as Pope, the Vatican may have just slowed all progress down. He can't make a move towards liberalization, but at the same time, the Pope's hands are tied by the wave of liberalism sweeping across Europe and other parts of the world. In the end, we may see no changes in Vatican stance from today until his successor is chosen.

Cool Tech - Internet Everywhere

I'm writing this from my $300 PalmOne Zire 72, typing on my $75 PalmOne infrared keyboard (both from http://palmone.com), connected via bluetooth to my Sony Ericsson T610 (http://sony.com), using, or should I say wasting minutes from my T-Mobile (http://tmobile.com) plan. But, that's where the spending ends, I swear.

For those of you requiring POP e-mail, my dirty secret ends for you here. But, if you want AIM, and internet access, and blogging from anywhere, this is probably the most cost-effective way you can do it.

PalmOne's standard Zire 72 package comes with a web browser and e-mail program (in case you find an smtp host on a non-standard port, and I'm told that http://no-ip.com provides a service that lets you get around a blocked port 25), but you'll still need an AIM program and a blogging program. AOL's standard US AIM program costs about $20, but the British version (http://www.aol.co.uk/aim/), although pretty much featureless, works fine on American soil, and is totally free. For blogging, HBlogger (http://www.normsoft.com/hblogger/), the software that this was written on) provides a free, unlimited demo that works on just about every blogging site, including many scripts you might use with your webhost.

But, you're still wondering, what about the ISP? You have to pay for that, right? Wrong! There exist several free dial-up ISPs. Most of them are local to a certain area, but with free long distance from T-Mobile, that's not a problem. I use two such companies regularly. Free Dial-Up (http://freedialup.org) is the fastest and most reliable, but I also use NoCharge (http://nocharge.com) for backup.

So, if you're looking for portable internet on a budget, it can be done.

Happy internetting,

Gabe

[Posted from my palm]

Goals and Topics

Listening to: Alice's Restaurant - Arlo Gunthrie


I know this is going to be hard to handle; it always is. But, I'm 16, I live in Denver, and my name is Gabe. I'm interested in politics, technology (among a thousand other things), and this is where I hope you'll enjoy discussing some of those topics with me.

I think you should know a few things about me: I'm an Apple Macintosh junkie, and I'm generally a democrat. For those of you wanted to flame me for being a Mac user, whatever. Haven't we all had enough of that? Just like you, I'm sure I can enjoy the spread of awesome technology, without having to handle being flamed. As for political discussion, flame away. I can handle it, but keep in mind - I will not tolerate pure name-calling. You've got to have some decent facts behind what you say. For those of you prone to that kind of idiotic behavior, consider the definition of 'discussion'. It's not about being right and wrong, it's about reaching some sort of shared concensus on an issue, and I think that's what the main goal of this blog is going to be.

I think we should all be aware that this country's political movement is at an absolute, bloody standstill. The political discussion used to be about having fun - now, people on all sides have been brainwashed into believing that they are always right. If a fact disagrees with there opinion, it's a "left-wing" fact or a "right-wing" fact spewed by the "left" or "right" media. And worse, if a person disagrees, they're a long string of (insert explative here).

Let's put an end to all of that here and now. From now on, a fact is a fact, a person is a person. If they disagree, great! That's more for us to build our own experience on. Politics should be about both sides building to create an America that everybody wants, not today's partisan polarizing game. So that's what this blog is going to try and accomplish, at least to a minor degree.

Thanks for reading, and I hope you become active in the discussion. Of course, you can always chat with me on AIM: potterhead44, or e-mail me at gabe@comcast.net.

Thanks again,

Gabe